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Recently, wood Mackenzie, a British energy consultancy, released the latest research data. It is estimated that at the end of 2019, there will be about 21gw of photovoltaic power stations worldwide that need to replace inverters, which accounts for about 3.4% of the global inverter market. Wood Mackenzie further predicted that by 2024, there will be about 176gw of photovoltaic power station inverters around the world with a service life of more than 10 years, at which time, the cost of inverter replacement will be close to $1.2 billion.

How many times does the inverter need to be replaced in the life cycle of about 25 years? How to deal with the inverter after its service period? What are the new development directions of PV inverter when PV parity in China is approaching?

Market demand has begun to show

"Wood Mackenzie's research results are based on the premise that the service life of photovoltaic inverters, especially some early products, is usually about 10 years. As an inverter manufacturer, we really hope that there will be a large number of existing power stations to replace inverter products, and this demand has emerged since this year. " The head of a well-known domestic inverter manufacturer told reporters that in 2018, the company received only a few hundred MW of product replacement demand, but there will be a lot of market space from 2019. "We have made an internal assessment this year. During the five years from 2019 to 2023, the demand for replacing old inverter products in the global market may be around 86gw, including various types of centralized ground power stations, household power stations and industrial and commercial distributed power stations. The replacement demand for centralized ground power stations will reach about 37gw, especially the centralized transformation in the Chinese market. In the European market, there will be a large amount of replacement of small and medium-sized distributed projects and household power stations. "

The above person in charge also pointed out that how to get the corresponding market share depends on a series of factors such as price, installation convenience, etc. "In fact, in 2018, some power stations in overseas market need to replace old products. However, on the one hand, the owner will give priority to the new products of the original manufacturers, on the other hand, although our product quality is recognized, the price has been in the high position in the industry, so it will also affect certain shipments. But from this year on, we expect a substantial increase in market demand. "

The recovery value of expired products is very small

Old products have frequent failures and low efficiency, but also lack the basis of upgrading and optimization. Garcia Da Fonseca, chief analyst of wood Mackenzie, pointed out that although digitalization is the future development direction of photovoltaic inverter, not all facilities and assets have the basis of digitalization transformation. "For products and projects close to their service life, intelligent investment upgrading is meaningless."

Not only that, but also the owners of photovoltaic power stations revealed to reporters that the old inverter products with earlier production time, once reaching the service life, have little value of recycling. "Like the very old inverter, there are almost no corresponding spare parts in the market, and there is also a connection problem with the current new components. No one is willing to accept the price no matter how cheap it is. It can only be sold in two places when the scrap is weighed. What's more, now the entire photovoltaic industry chain is reducing costs and prices, and everyone must be willing to try new products. It's like a second-hand car that is close to being scrapped. There's nothing recyclable. Moreover, the price of a new car is not particularly high and its performance is good. Who wants a scrapped car? Only selling scrap iron.

Efficiency is no longer the only standard

"For a simple example, now you install a photovoltaic power station on the roof of your home, choose an efficient inverter, which may generate 1-2 kwh more electricity than your neighbor every day. But if the inverter suddenly breaks down one day, it may take about a week to repair or replace it. At this time, the owner will gradually understand that efficiency is important, but equally important is the reliability of the product, to be able to generate electricity stably and steadily. " In the view of inverter manufacturers, the demands of the owners are constantly changing and improving, and the products must also adapt to the changes of the market.

Therefore, in addition to improving efficiency, domestic photovoltaic inverter manufacturers also regard improving product reliability as a new focus. According to the relevant person in charge of Huawei's intelligent photovoltaic business department, Huawei and other domestic leading enterprises have already taken the lead in promising that the service life of the products will be at least 20 years in view of the traditional inverter's service life of about 10 years. "It's unbelievable that foreign owners first heard such a promise. In fact, in the internal test, some products are even used in extreme environment for 30 years. On this basis, we also need to minimize the failure rate of the product, so that our inverter can operate stably for 20-30 years. "

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